Back & Lay 101 — Win with Exchange Logic

What is Back & Lay?

Back = betting for an outcome to happen. Lay = betting against an outcome; you become the bookmaker. Exchanges like BetPro match backers and layers directly.

Odds & Implied Probability

For decimal odds O, implied probability P ≈ 1 / O. Example: odds 2.50 imply ~40% (1/2.5) likelihood priced by the market.

Returns, Profit & Liability

• Back profit (win) = stake × (odds − 1). Loss = stake.
• Lay liability (max loss) = stake × (odds − 1). Profit if selection loses = stake.

Example 1 — Simple Back

You back Team A at 2.40 for Rs 1,000.

• If Team A wins: profit = 1,000 × (2.40 − 1) = Rs 1,400.
• If Team A loses: loss = Rs 1,000.

Example 2 — Simple Lay

You lay Team A at 1.80 for Rs 1,000.

• If Team A loses: you win the backer’s stake = Rs 1,000.
• If Team A wins: you pay liability = 1,000 × (1.80 − 1) = Rs 800.

Hedging & The Green Book

By backing and laying at different odds, you can “green up” — locking profit on all outcomes.

Step-by-Step Hedge

1. Back Team A @ 2.60, stake Rs 1,000.
2. Odds shorten to 2.20 (market believes Team A more likely).
3. Lay Team A @ 2.20 with a stake that balances profit.

Balanced lay stake formula (to equalize outcomes):

layStake = (backOdds × backStake) / layOdds

Plug values: (2.60 × 1000) / 2.20 ≈ Rs 1,182.

Exact numbers vary slightly due to rounding/commissions, but the idea holds: you’ve created a green book.

Bankroll & Risk Rules

• 1–3% rule: keep any single exposure ≤ 3% of bankroll.
• Lay safely: liability can spike — know it before clicking.
• No chasing: if a loss hits, take a break; don’t double down.
• Record keeping: track odds, stakes, pnl; review weekly.

In-Play Tips (Cricket)

• Market overreacts to wickets: odds swing. Plan entries/exits.
• Use partial hedges: green some profit, leave some edge running.
• Liquidity matters: prefer matches with tight spreads and depth.

Match Checklist

• Pre-match model/notes ready
• Entry odds, exit odds, stop-loss defined
• Max liability capped
• Internet stable; device charged

FAQs

What if odds move against me?

Decide beforehand: accept loss at stop-loss odds, or reduce stake to control risk. Never average down blindly.

Do commissions matter?

Yes. Profit after commissions is what counts. Account for it in your hedge math if the exchange charges a fee.

Mini Glossary

• Back: For the outcome.
• Lay: Against the outcome.
• Liability: Max loss on a lay bet.
• Green book: Profit on all outcomes after hedging.